Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either a data gap or settlement mechanics that require clarification before meaningful trading emerges. August represents the tail end of Beijing's summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 26–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C.

Historical August records for Beijing show considerable year-to-year variation. The city's all-time August high exceeds 40°C, but such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Recent summers (2020–2024) have seen August averages cluster around 28–30°C at the airport station, with occasional spikes into the mid-30s during high-pressure systems. The zero probability reading suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or clarification on the exact temperature bands the market will offer at resolution.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological authority (CMA) seasonal outlooks, typically released in late July, which flag whether August 2026 is expected to run above or below climatological norms. Any significant heat wave warnings issued in early August would shift expectations materially. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official CMA data—introduces a minor dependency on that platform's data quality and availability, worth confirming before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.