Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on which temperature band the recorded high falls into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity and trader participation.

August represents the tail end of Beijing's summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28–34°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-to-high 30s. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat events (35°C+) occur in roughly 15–20% of August days in the capital, whilst temperatures below 28°C are comparatively rare during this month. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a consensus view that a specific temperature band is near-certain, or a market with insufficient depth to generate meaningful odds across all possible ranges.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength in early August will be the primary driver of whether Beijing experiences typical seasonal heat or an anomalous cool spell. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as tropical cyclone activity affecting northern China or an early autumn cold front—would alter baseline expectations materially. Weather Underground's historical accuracy at Beijing Capital Airport is well-established, making data quality a non-issue for settlement purposes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.