Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 14 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting the crowd has assigned negligible likelihood to any specific outcome materialising. This reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting point-specific weather events nearly two years in advance, where atmospheric conditions remain genuinely unpredictable at granular resolution.

Beijing's August temperatures historically cluster in the 25–35°C range, with extremes occasionally breaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The city experiences its warmest period in July and early August, driven by the East Asian summer monsoon and urban heat island effects. Reviewing Weather Underground's historical daily observations for mid-August across multiple years shows considerable year-to-year variance; some years record highs in the low 30s whilst others see peaks near 36°C. This variability explains why consensus has effectively abandoned directional conviction this far out—the signal-to-noise ratio remains poor.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by China's meteorological authority in the months preceding August 2026, which typically offer guidance on whether the summer will trend warmer or cooler than normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in 2025–2026 could shift baseline expectations. The specific resolution methodology—relying on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between reporting sources have occasionally caused disputes in weather markets, so confirming data availability and consistency from the designated station becomes material as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.