Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **highest daytime temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 4 August**, and the crowd is pricing that outcome at **0% YES**, which makes the board a clear underdog/contrarian setup. In practical terms, consensus appears to be that the day will not produce an extreme enough reading to clear the higher bins, even though published August forecasts for Beijing still point to hot conditions, with daily highs commonly in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and some models nudging the day into the mid-30s.[2][3][12][17]

The historical and comparable-case read is that August in Beijing is normally hot, humid, and rain-prone rather than evenly scorching, so the market tends to hinge on whether sunshine wins the early part of the day before cloud or showers cap the airport maximum. Travel and climate guides put Beijing’s August average highs around 30–31°C, with the broader monthly range often stretching from the low 20s into the low 30s, which makes mid-30s outcomes plausible but not routine.[4][16][19] That framing leaves value in the higher-temperature tails if a forecaster expects a sunnier, less interrupted heating cycle than the market is implying, while the favourite remains the more modest peak temperatures around the low 30s.[1][4]

The key catalysts are the intraday weather sequence and any shift in precipitation timing, because the settlement source is the airport station’s observed maximum rather than a citywide forecast. Forecast feeds currently show a mix of heat and rain risk, with some calling for a high in the mid-30s and others keeping the day closer to 29–31°C, so the trade will likely move on changes in cloud cover, storm timing, and wind rather than on the headline monthly average alone.[1][2][9][14] The clearest value spot sits in whichever band captures a brief but decisive warm spell before any rain or convection knocks the ceiling down.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.