Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s Capital International Airport is about to record its peak temperature for 10 July 2026, with the crowd overwhelmingly betting the figure will land in the highest expected range. The implied probability sits at 99% YES, reflecting near-total consensus that the day will not breach the threshold for a lower bracket. This conviction mirrors historical patterns: July is Beijing’s hottest month, routinely seeing highs near 32–36°C, with 2023 peaking at 40°C and the all-time record reaching 41.9°C in 1999[1][3]. Average daily highs in July hover around 31°C, rarely dipping below 26°C or exceeding 36°C, making a lower-range outcome statistically improbable[4].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures. Recent heatwaves across northern China, including a record 41.8°C spike in 2023, suggest sustained high-pressure systems are likely to persist through mid-July[7]. Authorities have already urged residents to limit outdoor exposure due to extreme heat, underscoring the intensity of current conditions[3]. While the consensus heavily favours YES, a contrarian angle might exist if an unexpected rain event—like the sprinkles recorded today at 77°F[5]—cools the airport station before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.