Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport weather station and resolved against historical ranges. July is consistently the hottest month in Beijing, with average highs around 29–30°C, though extreme heat waves can push readings well above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the market captures the full calendar day's maximum at the airport station.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. Historical July data from Beijing shows that temperatures in the 30–35°C band occur regularly, whilst readings above 35°C are less frequent but far from rare—the city experienced a 41.1°C peak in June 2022 and routinely sees July highs exceeding 35°C during typical summers. The consensus pricing suggests either thin liquidity or traders waiting for seasonal forecasts closer to the date. Value may exist in mid-range outcomes (30–35°C) that represent the statistical centre of July behaviour, particularly if early-summer patterns suggest a cooler-than-average monsoon influence.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released in June 2026, which typically forecast summer temperature anomalies three months ahead. Urban heat island effects at the airport station—a developed area surrounded by concrete and tarmac—consistently elevate readings above rural comparables. Any El Niño or La Niña signals emerging in spring 2026 could shift the probability distribution, as these patterns influence East Asian summer temperatures. Real-time forecasts from late July will provide the sharpest signal, but historical volatility in Beijing's peak daily temperatures argues against extreme confidence in any single range.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.