Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular outcome cluster.

Late May in Beijing typically sits within the late-spring warming phase, with historical highs clustering in the 28–32°C range. The city experiences increasing solar radiation and reduced cloud cover as summer approaches, though occasional cool fronts can suppress temperatures. Comparable years show variability: the 2015 dataset recorded 31°C on 26 May, whilst 2019 peaked at 29°C on the same date. This range reflects the inherent uncertainty in seasonal weather patterns and the influence of transient pressure systems that can shift outcomes by several degrees within a single week.

The primary catalyst remains the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern developing across East Asia in mid-May 2026. Traders should monitor forecasts from China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) from approximately 10–14 days before settlement, when medium-range confidence improves. Subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward typically drive warmer outcomes, whilst northerly flow from Mongolia produces cooler readings. The absence of scheduled weather events or anomalies currently known makes this a pure seasonal-pattern play, with value potentially lying in temperature bands reflecting the historical 28–32°C clustering rather than extreme outliers.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.