Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s **highest temperature on 10 August** is trading as a strong underdog at a **0% YES** crowd-implied price, so the market is effectively pricing in a cooler-than-usual day or, at minimum, a reading that lands below the relevant Celsius band. That sits against Busan’s normal August profile, where average highs are around the high-20s Celsius and the month is typically warm, humid and rain-prone; the city’s long-run August mean maximum is about 29.5°C, and records can reach the upper-30s, though that is not the base case. In handicapper’s terms, the consensus leans to the low-30s-or-below zone rather than a heat spike, which leaves the more attractive value on a contrarian overshoot only if the marine layer breaks and sunshine dominates early.

The key catalyst is the actual **Daily Observations** feed for Gimhae Intl Airport Station, because that table controls settlement, not the day-high summary. Current forecast snapshots for Busan point to cloud, breezy conditions and intermittent thunderstorms, with highs clustered around 83–86°F, roughly 28–30°C, which supports the favourite side on the lower temperature bands rather than a hotter surprise.[11][13][14] The trader’s watchlist is simple: any early clearing, a shift in wind off the sea, or a forecast upgrade in the hours before midday UTC would matter more than the headline “day high” number. If precipitation lingers, the underdog case for a lower maximum strengthens further; if conditions brighten earlier than expected, the market could still be underestimating the chance of a band just above the consensus.[2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.