Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 15 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting the crowd sees this as an event with negligible likelihood of occurring—though the settlement window closes at midday, creating a technical constraint on what can be recorded. Busan's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C, making extreme heat neither rare nor improbable for that date.

Historical August data from Gimhae Airport shows the station regularly records temperatures in the 30–34°C band during mid-August, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability appears misaligned with seasonal norms; even conservative estimates would place temperatures in the 28–32°C range as near-certain, yet the market structure requires settlement against specific temperature brackets that the description does not enumerate. This disconnect between baseline climatology and crowd pricing suggests either confusion about the resolution bands or systematic underpricing of ordinary summer conditions.

Traders should note the resolution source is explicitly the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies in recorded highs. The settlement window's noon closure is material: if the highest temperature occurs in the afternoon (typical for August), it will be captured; if recording delays or station maintenance occur, they could affect the final figure. Recent Korean meteorological patterns show no anomalous forecasts for mid-August 2026, leaving seasonal expectations as the primary guide.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.