Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 17 August 2026 will fall into whatever range this market tracks. This represents an extreme consensus view that the specified temperature threshold is either implausibly high or implausibly low for a mid-August reading in Busan.

Busan's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that daily highs in mid-August typically range between 28–32°C, with readings above 35°C occurring in roughly one year per decade during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% implied probability suggests the market has settled on a range that sits well outside this historical envelope—either substantially above the extreme heat threshold or below the coolest August readings on record. Without knowing the specific temperature band this market resolves to, traders should cross-reference Gimhae station's actual August records from prior years to establish whether the range is genuinely implausible or whether the crowd has simply mispriced a tail-risk outcome.

The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for Gimhae International Airport, which can occasionally diverge from summary figures. Traders should monitor whether any significant weather pattern shifts are forecast for August 2026—tropical cyclone activity, monsoon timing, or anomalous heat systems could all shift the distribution meaningfully. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August, creating a hard deadline for final observations. Any ambiguity between the Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections will favour the former source, so familiarity with how that station reports data is essential.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.