Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 18 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or extreme confidence that no single range will resolve. Busan's August climate typically produces daily highs between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability indicates either the range bins are misaligned with expected outcomes or traders have not yet engaged with the market structure.

Historical August temperatures at Gimhae show consistent patterns: the station recorded 31.2°C on 18 August 2023 and 30.8°C on the same date in 2022, placing typical highs in the upper 29–32°C band. Extreme heat events in Busan remain possible but infrequent; the airport's all-time August high sits around 34–35°C. The current zero probability suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or clarity on available temperature ranges, rather than reflecting genuine meteorological uncertainty.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any heat wave alerts issued in late July. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Gimhae specifically, not summary figures, so data availability and station reporting become critical. Any tropical system affecting the Korean peninsula in mid-August could suppress temperatures, though such systems typically occur later in the month. The market's current state warrants verification that all temperature bins are properly listed and accessible before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.