Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Gimhae International Airport's weather station will record the peak temperature in Busan on 28 July 2026. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no reading will occur.

Busan's July temperatures have historically clustered between 28–32°C at the airport station, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The city experiences monsoon season through early July, which can suppress daytime highs, but late July typically brings drier, warmer conditions as the rainy season transitions. Records from the past decade show that extreme heat events (above 35°C) remain uncommon but not unprecedented; the 2018 heat wave pushed readings to 34–35°C across South Korea's southern coast. The 0% reading here likely reflects that no single temperature band has accumulated meaningful trader conviction rather than suggesting genuinely anomalous weather.

The Korean Meteorological Administration issues seasonal forecasts and heat-wave alerts that traders should monitor through June and early July 2026. Any official warnings about above-average temperatures or sustained high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula would shift expectations toward higher ranges. Conversely, predictions of an active monsoon or tropical storm activity in late July could suppress peaks. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 July, meaning traders have until that point to adjust positions based on morning weather reports and real-time observations from Gimhae station itself.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.