Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's outcome. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from headline highs.

Chengdu's August climate presents a narrow historical window. The city experiences peak summer heat in late July and early August, with daily maxima typically ranging between 32–36°C during this fortnight. The 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges signals either a data lag or that traders expect a temperature outcome so obvious it requires no hedging. Historical August records at Shuangliu show consistent patterns: extreme heat (above 37°C) occurs roughly once per decade in August, whilst temperatures below 30°C are exceptionally rare. This baseline should anchor expectations about which ranges hold genuine value versus those priced as statistical impossibilities.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any unusual weather systems—tropical cyclones tracking northward or sustained high-pressure domes—would shift probabilities materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August, creating a hard deadline for final observations. Early August 2026 weather patterns and any anomalies in the jet stream positioning will be the primary catalysts determining whether the outcome clusters around historical norms or deviates significantly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.