Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 17 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution will depend on readings from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies worth monitoring.

Chengdu's August climate is characterised by high heat and humidity, with historical August averages around 29–30°C and peak daily highs frequently exceeding 35°C. The city experienced temperatures above 40°C on multiple occasions during August 2022 and 2023, though such extremes remain outliers rather than the norm. Summer heat waves in the Sichuan basin typically peak in July and early August, with mid-August often showing slight moderation as monsoon patterns shift. The 0% crowd pricing suggests either a consensus view on which specific band will resolve, or minimal trading activity establishing a floor.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 17 August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months will influence regional atmospheric patterns; the current ENSO phase heading into 2026 will shape whether August sits toward the cooler or warmer end of historical distributions. Local air quality and pollution levels, which affect solar radiation reaching the surface, merit attention from weather services tracking Chengdu specifically.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.