Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature is likely to land in the **hot-but-not-extreme** band, with the market pricing only a **0% YES** chance despite August in the city often producing highs around 30–31°C and occasional spikes into the upper 30s. Forecast sources for 9 August point to daytime maxima around **32–35°C** with showers or thunderstorms in the mix, which puts the consensus squarely in a moderate-summer outcome rather than a record-breaker.[1][2][4][5][10] On that basis, the favourite is clearly the middle temperature ranges, while the contrarian angle is that brief sunshine or downslope warming could still nudge the airport reading higher than the softer citywide forecasts imply.

Historically, Chengdu’s August 9 average high is near **30.4°C**, while the long-term record for that date is **38.1°C**, so the distribution is wide enough that a late-afternoon surge is not impossible even when the day begins warm and damp.[2] Comparable August climatology across Chengdu also suggests humid heat is normal, with monthly average highs around **89°F/31°C** and a substantial rain chance, which often caps upside if cloud cover and showers persist.[1][3][8][15][20] For handicappers, the value spot is usually not in an extreme-top range unless the forecast trend shifts materially hotter; the crowd’s 0% implies consensus is already anchored to a miss on the highest bands.

The main catalysts are the same-day hourly observation path and whether convection builds after midday, because this market resolves from the **Daily Observations** table at Weather Underground for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the summary high/low. That means traders should watch for any late-afternoon clearing, thunderstorm timing, or updated airport readings rather than rely on broad city forecasts, which can differ by several degrees from station data.[19] As of the available forecast material, sources are split between low-30s and mid-30s Celsius, so the underdog case is a surprise break upwards, while the favourite remains a contained high in the low-to-mid 30s.[1][4][5][7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.