Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set to record its peak daily heat for 11 July 2026, with the market currently pricing any temperature above the baseline at zero probability. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting consensus that the day will remain below the specific threshold in question. Historical data confirms July is Chengdu’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 31°C and occasional spikes to 38°C, particularly during the middle ten days of the period [3][5]. Past records show the city’s absolute peak hit 38.6°C in August 2022, indicating that extreme heat is plausible but not guaranteed [10]. The current 0% pricing appears to treat the threshold as an underdog, yet the basin geography and seasonal patterns often favour high-30s temperatures, creating a potential value spot for contrarian traders who believe the market is underestimating July’s volatility [3][9].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Chengdu Shuangliu station, as settlement relies exclusively on this source’s highest recorded temperature for the day [7]. Key catalysts include the development of the mid-July heatwave, which climatologists note as the period most likely to breach 35°C [5]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for today, the dependency on a single data point means any gap in reporting could skew resolution. The thin volume across outcome bins in similar Chengdu heat markets suggests liquidity is limited, amplifying the risk of mispricing [9]. Given the 0% implied probability, the value likely sits on the contrarian angle that July’s fuggy conditions and historical peaks support a higher temperature than the market currently acknowledges [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.