Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the market betting on whether the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station will record a temperature exceeding 35°C. The crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, yet historical climatology for mid-July in this region centres on 30–32°C averages, with frequent spikes reaching 35°C or higher [1]. Comparable cases show July is one of the city’s hottest months, often feeling as fuggy as Singapore, with several days historically hitting 38°C [2]. The consensus heavily favours the 38°C outcome at 34%, followed by 37°C at 28%, suggesting the 0% YES probability may be a mispricing if the market is conflating “any heat” with a specific threshold not defined in the prompt [1].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as the resolution source relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [1]. A key catalyst is China’s recent record-breaking heatwave, where July marked the hottest month on record since comprehensive data began in 1961, increasing the likelihood of extreme spikes [5]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the contrarian angle lies in the 37°C–38°C range, where value may sit if the 0% YES line ignores the statistical probability of temperatures exceeding 35°C during this volatile period [1][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.