Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 25 July 2026. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the outcome, suggesting consensus expectation that temperatures will fall below the lowest threshold in the available range. Chengdu's summer climate typically produces daily highs between 28°C and 35°C during late July, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability indicates traders expect a notably cool day relative to seasonal norms, or that the market structure itself may be creating a technical floor rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about temperature occurrence.

Historical records from Chengdu Shuangliu show July temperatures rarely dip below 25°C for daily highs, with the station recording temperatures in the 30–34°C band on most days throughout the month. Extreme heat events pushing above 37°C occur irregularly but are documented in the station's records. The current probability distribution suggests either that the lowest temperature bracket in this market's range sits above typical July highs—making all outcomes technically "underdog"—or that the crowd has mispriced baseline expectations for late-July conditions in this region.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models and any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in the weeks before late July 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift regional temperatures meaningfully. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data from the specific airport station, making data availability and recording accuracy the only operational variables once the date arrives.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.