Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

At Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, the market is effectively asking whether the day’s **high** lands in a summer range that the crowd has priced as impossible, with **0% YES** implying the field is treating the relevant temperature band as a long shot. For a late-July Chengdu reading, that is a strong underdog position: several forecasts cluster around low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with the more aggressive models touching the mid-to-high 30s, which keeps the upside for a hotter settle alive if sunshine breaks through or convection arrives later than expected.[3][7][11]

The historical frame is straightforward: Chengdu’s July climate is warm, humid and prone to showers, but it is not unusual for daytime highs to sit around the low 30s Celsius, and some sources note occasional spikes towards 38°C in summer.[13][14][19] That makes the consensus favourite the warmer temperature bands rather than the cooler ones, yet the crowd’s zero price creates value only if the market is over-discounting the airport station’s tendency to run a touch cooler than city-centre forecasts when cloud and rain linger. In handicap terms, the contrarian angle is not that Chengdu turns cold, but that a modestly hot reading can beat a market that is pricing near-certainty elsewhere.[3][8][9]

For catalysts, traders should watch whether the day’s forecast shifts towards isolated afternoon thunderstorms or sustained cloud cover, because those are the main drag on the daily maximum at airport stations. Current model runs and live forecast pages show some disagreement on just how warm the afternoon gets, ranging from about 33°C to 37°C, with precipitation risk still present in several outlooks.[3][9][11] The key dependency is timing: if heating peaks before showers build, the high can print near the upper end of the range; if cloud and rain arrive earlier, the settle can slip back towards the lower band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.