Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The airport station’s **highest temperature** on 10 August in Chongqing is what settles this market, and the crowd has it as a **35°C favourite** at **41%**, with **34°C** close behind at **36%** and the rest of the board thinner, so the implied consensus is a mid-30s outcome rather than a breakout heat spike.[2] That leaves the current **0% YES** crowd read looking like a clear contrarian angle: the market is effectively saying the most likely band is 34–35°C, but it is not pricing a large tail beyond that, which is where the value question sits if the day runs hotter than modelled.[2]

Historically, Chongqing in August is a strong heat venue, with normal highs around **34°C** and descriptions of extreme highs reaching **39–43°C** in the hottest part of the season.[3][8][16] Forecast pages for 10 August also point to a hot day, with AccuWeather showing about **95°F/79°F** and a thunderstorm risk, which broadly matches the city’s humid summer profile rather than a cool anomaly.[1][9][13] For handicappers, that supports the favourite case for the **34–35°C** range, while the underdog case is a lower reading if cloud cover or rain knocks the peak back below expectations.[3][9]

Traders should watch the actual hourly readings at **Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station** on the settlement day, because the market resolves from the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low box, so a late-afternoon spike can matter even if the headline forecast does not shift much.[Market description] The key catalysts are thus timing and localisation: storms, humidity, and whether the airport site warms enough for a brief top-end print before easing later in the day.[9][13] That makes the main question less about whether Chongqing is hot in August, and more about whether the station logs **34°C**, **35°C**, or a surprise **36°C+**.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.