Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd probability stands at 0%, suggesting traders have assigned negligible likelihood to whichever temperature range this market represents—likely an extreme upper or lower bound.

Chongqing's August climate presents a consistent pattern: the city ranks among China's hottest, with mean daily highs around 32–34°C during mid-August. Historical records show temperatures regularly exceed 35°C in August, with occasional peaks above 38°C during heat waves. The 0% probability implies either an implausibly high threshold (40°C+) or an unusually low one that contradicts seasonal norms. August 2026 falls within typical meteorological patterns absent major volcanic activity or atmospheric disruption, making extreme departures from the 30-year normal unlikely. Comparable August readings from 2015–2023 cluster tightly around established ranges, offering little precedent for the kind of anomaly that would justify zero probability.

Traders monitoring this market should track late July and early August 2026 weather patterns across the Yangtze River region, where Chongqing sits. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing through mid-2026 would influence regional heat distribution. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 20 August, allowing only morning observations to count; afternoon heat peaks typically occur after this cutoff, introducing a timing dependency that distinguishes this market from standard daily-high markets. Weather Underground's data feed reliability and any station maintenance during late summer should be confirmed before settlement approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.