Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport high on 4 August is a straightforward *heat-market* set-up: the forecast standard for the city in August is punishingly hot, with typical highs around 34°C and broader climate guides describing August as Chongqing’s hottest month, with extreme highs reaching the high 30s to low 40s Celsius.[1][6][9] Against that backdrop, the crowd-implied 0% YES looks like a strong favourite on the underlying weather being warm enough to land in a high-temperature band, but the market’s real question is not whether it is hot; it is how hot the airport station prints at the daily peak.[1][9]

For comparable context, published August climate norms put Chongqing near the low- to mid-30s Celsius most days, while recent weather write-ups also note that heatwaves can push the city into the upper 30s and beyond.[1][6][18] That framing matters for handicapping the range: if consensus is anchored near the monthly average, the value may sit in a slightly higher band than casual traders expect, especially if skies stay hot and humid rather than being broken by rain. The contrarian angle is that summer thunderstorms can trim the day’s maximum even when the broader setup remains oppressive, which is why lower bands can still have some residual appeal if convection develops early.[1][10]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather evolution at the airport, especially cloud cover, rainfall timing, and whether the hottest reading arrives before any afternoon shower or wind shift cools things off.[1][10] Wunderground’s daily history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is the settlement source, so the decisive driver is the recorded maximum there, not citywide averages or headline forecasts elsewhere.[1] In market terms, that leaves the favourite tied to persistent heat and the underdog tied to rainfall interference, with value likely sitting wherever traders underweight the station-specific peak versus the broader city narrative.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.