Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s peak temperature on 9 August has already been stamped by the market as a **heavy favourite for 98–99°F**, with the implied probability at **0% for YES in the listed contract only if you read “YES” as anything outside the dominant band;** the practical consensus in the price action is still that the day landed in the upper 90s. Weather Underground’s Dallas history page and nearby weather summaries show a very hot Sunday, with a late report at **96.1°F** and other sources around **100°F** for the day, which fits the idea that the settlement is likely to sit in the top two outcome bands rather than in a cooler contrarian range.[1][8][9]

For handicappers, that makes the crowd’s read the obvious **favourite**: a broad, hot-summer Dallas outcome with little room for a surprise. The **underdog** case is not that the day was cool, but that the final Weather Underground Daily Observations maximum at Dallas Love Field was one bracket lower or higher than traders assumed, especially if late-afternoon readings or a brief spike were missed by rough forecasts. Comparable August Dallas weather is typically extreme enough that small forecast errors matter more than the overall temperature regime, and recent public forecasts still pointed to highs near **100°F** for the date.[2][5][12]

The main catalyst for traders is not a new policy announcement or schedule shift, but the **final Weather Underground observation record**, since the contract explicitly resolves off the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low box. That means the key dependency is whether Weather Underground posts any late revisions before the next day’s first datapoint; the market itself notes that revisions inside the window count until that cutoff.[3][8] In practice, consensus appears to be already set, so any residual value is likely on the **contrarian edge cases**: a one-degree miss around the band boundary, or an unexpected station-specific reading at Dallas Love Field that differs from broader Dallas-area weather feeds.[1][7][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.