Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is forecast to hit highs near 99°F on 12 July under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow, making the 94–97°F range the statistical favourite for the day’s peak temperature[1]. Historical climatology shows July normals at 96.9°F, with recent years typically ranging between 96° and 102°[2][6]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market has effectively priced out any outcome outside the most likely bands, yet the 94–95°F segment commands 57% of the volume, while 96–97°F holds 30%[1]. This skew indicates consensus leans cooler than the 99°F forecast, creating a potential value spot for the 96–97°F underdog if high-pressure intensity strengthens.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any divergence between forecasted and recorded highs as the day progresses[1]. Key catalysts include shifts in southerly flow strength and cloud cover, which could push temperatures toward the 100°F threshold seen in recent DFW records[8]. While no specific announcements are pending, the National Weather Service’s current conditions at KDAL show 82°F at 3 AM with 74% dew point, hinting at moisture that could moderate daytime peaks if convection develops[3]. Contrarian angles may favour the 96–97°F range if the high-pressure system remains unbroken, as historical extremes in July have reached 108°F, though such spikes are rare[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.