Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record a daily high temperature on 13 July 2026, with the market seeking to identify which range contains that figure. The current crowd probability sits at 0% YES, indicating either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity. Settlement depends on historical data from Weather Underground, the designated resolution source, which archives daily temperature records for the station.

Dallas summer temperatures typically peak in the 95–98°F range during mid-July, though heat waves can push readings above 100°F. The 30-year normal high for 13 July at Love Field stands near 96°F. Historical precedent suggests the most probable outcomes cluster around the 90–99°F band; readings below 85°F or above 105°F occur rarely in July. The 0% probability assigned to YES likely reflects either a misalignment between market structure and trader expectations, or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery across the available temperature brackets.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts issued in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the position of the Bermuda High and any tropical systems affecting the Gulf Coast—will shape whether conditions favour typical summer heat or anomalous extremes. Historical analogue years such as 2023, when Dallas experienced prolonged heat dome conditions, offer reference points for understanding tail-risk scenarios. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, allowing real-time temperature data to inform final positions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.