Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The crowd has assigned 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific alternative range or minimal trading activity. Dallas summer highs typically cluster between 95–98°F, with occasional excursions above 100°F during heat domes. Historical July data from Love Field shows that temperatures exceeding 102°F occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 90°F are exceptionally rare for that month.

The 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny against Dallas's documented heat patterns. July 2023 saw a sustained heatwave across Texas, with Dallas recording multiple days above 100°F; the previous summer's conditions suggest the region remains capable of extreme heat. However, without visibility on the specific temperature ranges offered in this market, the consensus reading appears either anchored to a narrow band deemed most likely or reflects sparse liquidity. Traders should cross-reference historical Love Field data from Wunderground for comparable July dates and note that any significant atmospheric pattern shift—such as an early monsoon influence or persistent high-pressure system—would materially alter the distribution of likely outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.