Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date historically prone to scorching summer highs. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting the market consensus believes the temperature will not breach the specific threshold in question. This aligns with recent forecasts indicating daily highs between 96°F and 100°F for late June in Love Field, with overnight lows remaining warm between 77°F and 83°F[3]. Historical data for 28 June shows the all-time record reached 110°F in 1980, yet typical June averages climb from 88°F to 94°F with significant cloud cover about a third of the time[4][8]. The 0% valuation appears to treat the threshold as an underdog, ignoring the value spot where June 2026’s forecasted range of 96–100°F could realistically intersect with the settlement line if the market has mispriced the likelihood of a clear, hot day[3].

Traders must watch for catalysts including the National Weather Service’s hourly updates and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, which could suppress peak temperatures below the threshold. Recent reports show Sunny conditions with highs of 97°F forecast for 28 June, while 27 June also hit 96°F, indicating a consistent heat pattern that could push temperatures higher if skies remain clear[1]. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded high for all times on that day, making the timing of the peak heat critical; a late afternoon spike could easily breach the limit if the 10% precipitation chance fails to materialise[1]. With DFW experiencing nine 100-degree days in May and Waco tying records for June heat, the regional trend supports a contrarian angle that the 0% probability is overly defensive given the sustained high-temperature environment[7]. Monitoring the 24-hour temperature summaries from the National Weather Service will provide the most reliable real-time data to validate whether the consensus is correct or if value lies in betting against the 0% line[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.