Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

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Market context

Guangzhou’s peak temperature on 10 August is a **favourite to land in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius**, but the market’s current **0% YES** implies traders are effectively pricing the specific outcome as unavailable rather than merely unlikely. That leaves the consensus anchored around the broader heat regime, with outside chances concentrated in the **36–38°C** band that several forecasts currently point towards. AccuWeather has Guangzhou’s day high at **100°F/36°C**, Weather.com.cn shows **36°C**, and Weather Underground’s station page was already printing a very warm morning read with a forecast for the day ahead[4][7][8].

Historically, Guangzhou in August is one of the city’s hottest periods, with typical daytime highs around the low-to-mid 30s and humidity staying elevated, so a top temperature in the upper 30s is not out of character[11][13][17][19]. That makes the favourite any outcome tied to a reading in the forecast range, while the underdog is a cooler ceiling if cloud cover or showers cap the afternoon. The contrarian angle is that Weather Underground’s resolution source is the **Daily Observations** table, not the day-high summary, so any market that is priced off the headline forecast alone can be vulnerable if the observed maximum diverges from the earlier projection[5].

For traders, the key catalysts are the afternoon heating profile, cloud cover, and whether convective rain interrupts the run-up to peak temperatures. Current guidance is for hot conditions with limited rain and strong sunshine, but small shifts in storm timing can move the observed maximum by a degree or more, which matters directly for a range-based contract[3][4][6]. The practical watchpoint is the first published post-peak observation in Weather Underground’s station feed, because once the daily maximum is locked there, late forecast changes elsewhere stop being relevant to settlement[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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