Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine this market's outcome. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific temperature range resolving, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak or a technical issue with how the market has been framed. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different readings when stations report multiple measurements throughout a day.

Guangzhou's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs in mid-August clustering between 32–35°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 37°C or falling below 31°C. The city's tropical monsoon pattern means humidity remains high but temperature variance across individual days is relatively modest. August is deep within the hot season, after the peak June–July rainfall period, so atmospheric conditions favour sustained heat rather than dramatic swings. This historical stability should anchor expectations; the zero-probability reading suggests traders have not yet engaged with the market's mechanics rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Guangzhou's weather.

The settlement window closes at midday on 14 August 2026, meaning forecasts must account for morning and early-afternoon readings only. Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns as 2026 approaches and watch for any El Niño or La Niña signals that could shift regional temperatures. The specific reliance on Baiyun Airport station data—rather than urban or alternative measurement points—matters; airport stations typically record slightly different values than city-centre locations due to surface characteristics and exposure.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.