Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will record its highest daily temperature on 21 July 2026 at Baiyun International Airport Station. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading from the official meteorological station. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise.

Guangzhou's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 32°C and 35°C during mid-July, with extremes rarely exceeding 36°C or falling below 31°C. The city's subtropical monsoon pattern produces predictable heat during this period, with variation driven primarily by occasional tropical systems or temporary pressure shifts rather than structural seasonal change. This regularity means temperature ranges can be calibrated tightly against observed norms, and outlier outcomes—either unusually cool or exceptionally hot days—carry measurable but modest probability.

The relevant catalyst is the monsoon activity forecast for early-to-mid July 2026. Tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific typically influences Guangzhou's weather patterns during this window, potentially bringing cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress daytime highs, or conversely, clearing skies that allow temperatures to climb toward the upper end of the range. China's meteorological authority issues 10-day forecasts in early July that will clarify whether atmospheric conditions favour typical seasonal temperatures or deviation. Current zero pricing suggests the market awaits clearer directional signals before committing capital to specific temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.