Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will record its highest temperature on 25 July 2026 at Baiyun International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either a data lag or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will be hit.

Guangzhou's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records show the city regularly reaches 33–35°C during mid-to-late July, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C. The 0% crowd probability appears misaligned with this seasonal pattern—July is Guangzhou's hottest month, and temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s are near-certain outcomes rather than edge cases. Comparable years show little volatility in peak July temperatures, making the absence of consensus pricing unusual. This suggests traders may be waiting for updated seasonal forecasts or treating the market as illiquid rather than reflecting genuine doubt about heat levels.

The settlement window closes at midday on 25 July 2026, giving traders access to real-time conditions as the day unfolds. Wunderground's historical records are typically updated within hours of observation, though traders should verify the airport station's operational status and any sensor maintenance schedules that might affect data availability. Guangzhou's monsoon season occasionally produces cooler spells, but July falls outside the primary rainfall window, making sustained high pressure and heat the baseline scenario. The current 0% pricing leaves room for value in temperature brackets aligned with historical norms, particularly if traders are simply absent from the market rather than bearish on heat.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.