Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official daily high on 14 August is the key settlement figure, and the market is pricing that outcome at **0% YES**, which leaves the **underdog** side as the consensus and any positive-weather surprise as the only real value angle. In August, Hong Kong typically sits in a hot, humid regime, with average daytime temperatures around 31°C and occasional spikes above that, so a single-day maximum in the low 30s is the base case rather than an outlier.[14] That matters because the settlement uses the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for the date, not a forecast high, so traders should think in terms of the realised peak temperature during the day rather than the headline weather app number.[15]

Recent comparables show that Hong Kong can still print very sharp highs when warm air dominates. The Observatory reported 36.9°C on 10 August 2025, described as the highest since records began in 1884, which is a reminder that the favourite/underdog split here is often about whether the day is merely hot or genuinely extreme.[3][11] Against that backdrop, a 0% consensus implies the crowd is leaning hard towards no exceptional heat, but that can create value in higher temperature bands if conditions turn more stagnant than expected. The broader read is that the market is not asking whether Hong Kong is warm in August, but whether it is warm enough to break into a materially higher bracket than traders have anchored to.

For catalysts, the main dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory’s day-of observations and final daily extract, which can only be resolved once the official data is published.[15] Short-term risk comes from thunderstorm and tropical-cyclone activity, as these can cap daytime heating quickly even in a muggy airmass; current weather services show unsettled, thunderstorm-prone conditions for 14 August, with forecast highs around 30–31°C and high humidity.[8][9] If that setup holds, the underdog side stays favoured and the value sits with cooler temperature ranges, while a late shift towards clearer skies would be the contrarian path to a hotter settle.[8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.