Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 15 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete crowd participation or a technical settlement lag. August is Hong Kong's peak summer month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32°C and 35°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 36°C during heat waves.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon and occasional tropical cyclone activity. The 30-year average daily maximum for mid-August sits around 32.5°C, but the distribution is wide enough that outcomes spanning 31–36°C all carry material probability. The 0% crowd reading likely reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded; traders should treat this as an opening position rather than a meaningful signal. Historical volatility in August suggests that whilst 33–34°C remains the modal outcome, the tail risk of either cooler (sub-32°C) or hotter (36°C+) readings deserves consideration given Hong Kong's exposure to late-summer weather systems.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity tracking towards the region in late July and early August 2026. Cyclonic systems can suppress temperatures significantly or, conversely, create heat dome conditions that elevate maxima. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 August, giving the Observatory time to publish final daily data before resolution. Early-season crowd participation in weather markets often underweights tail outcomes; value may exist in temperature bands currently priced at zero if historical frequency data is applied rigorously.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.