Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 16 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete market formation or that traders are awaiting historical data and seasonal patterns to establish meaningful odds.

August sits within Hong Kong's peak summer season, when daily maxima routinely exceed 32°C. The Observatory's historical records show that mid-August temperatures typically range between 32–34°C, with occasional spikes toward 35°C during heat waves. The all-time August record for Hong Kong stands at 36.3°C, set in 1967. Recent years have seen temperatures in the 33–34°C band dominate mid-August, making readings above 35°C relatively uncommon but not unprecedented. The absence of any probability mass suggests the market has not yet calibrated against these seasonal norms or the specific meteorological conditions forecast for that week in 2026.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide outlooks for temperature anomalies and potential heat episodes. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in mid-2026 will influence whether August runs warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. The Observatory publishes daily maximum temperatures within its "Daily Extract" climate data portal, which will be the sole authoritative source for settlement. Until that data becomes available after 16 August, the market cannot resolve, leaving traders dependent on forward-looking meteorological guidance rather than historical precedent alone.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.