Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 17 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalised.

August sits within Hong Kong's peak summer season, when daily maxima routinely exceed 32°C. The Observatory's historical records show that mid-August temperatures typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during heat waves or when tropical systems approach. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on which temperature bands will be offered as resolution options. Without published resolution brackets, the market cannot properly calibrate; the consensus void reflects genuine uncertainty about the available outcome categories rather than confidence in any particular temperature range.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly, which will refine expectations for that specific week. Urban heat island effects in Hong Kong's densely built areas can push recorded maxima 1–2°C higher than surrounding regions, a factor worth noting when comparing historical precedent. Once resolution brackets are formally announced, the market will likely see activity clustering around the 33–35°C band based on climatological norms, though any declared heat wave conditions or unusual atmospheric patterns could shift positioning materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.