Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 10 June 2026, with settlement contingent on publication of the official daily maximum reading. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise on that specific date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures follow a consistent seasonal pattern. Historical data shows daily maxima in early June typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional readings exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The 2015 heatwave pushed June maxima above 35°C, though such extremes remain statistical outliers rather than the norm. Current zero probability across all ranges suggests traders are awaiting either clearer temperature forecasts or resolution of which specific bands the market offers, rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Hong Kong will record *some* maximum temperature on that date.

The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication timeline for the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in their Daily Extract dataset. Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns from May onwards, particularly any signals of early-summer heat systems developing across southern China. The El Niño or La Niña status heading into June 2026 will influence whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Until the market's available temperature bands are clarified and traders begin positioning, the zero probability reflects incomplete information rather than genuine market consensus on likely outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.