Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 23 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this specific date or are awaiting clearer seasonal patterns as the settlement window approaches.

Hong Kong's May temperatures are well-documented across decades of Observatory records. Historical data shows daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 32°C during late May, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves or early monsoon transitions. The 0% probability reading reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any expectation of anomalous conditions; comparable May dates in prior years have resolved across multiple temperature bands with roughly even distribution between 28–30°C and 31–33°C ranges. The absence of trading activity suggests the market is waiting for late-April or early-May weather pattern forecasts to crystallise trader positioning.

The key catalyst will be the progression of the southwest monsoon, which typically establishes itself over southern China by late May. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks released in April 2026, which will indicate whether above-normal or below-normal temperatures are expected. Additionally, any developing tropical systems or high-pressure systems over the region in the week preceding 23 May could shift temperature expectations materially. The actual Observatory data becomes the sole resolution source once finalised in their Daily Extract records, meaning settlement depends entirely on recorded instrumental readings rather than forecast models.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.