Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete market formation or that traders are awaiting historical baseline data before committing capital.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with the historical absolute maximum for the month reaching 36.1°C in 1967. The 25th falls in late spring, when the territory experiences warm, humid conditions ahead of the summer monsoon season. Over the past two decades, daily highs on comparable dates have clustered between 29°C and 32°C, with readings above 34°C occurring roughly once every five to ten years during May. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded; traders typically require established reference ranges before positioning.

The settlement depends entirely on Hong Kong Observatory's finalised daily extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date. No weather forecasts or announcements will drive market movement until late May 2026, when seasonal patterns become clearer. The absence of early-season trading activity suggests value may emerge once traders begin anchoring to historical May distributions and seasonal weather models become more precise. The market's current state indicates minimal liquidity rather than bearish sentiment on temperature outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.