Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s mid-July heat is a near-certainty, with the William P. Hobby Airport station routinely recording highs above 90°F during this period. Historical data shows July 15 has seen temperatures in the 93–97°F range in recent years, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome below 90°F appear deeply mispriced. The consensus leans heavily toward the 95–97°F bracket, yet contrarian value may sit in the 93–94°F range if a weak coastal front disrupts the usual heat dome, a scenario that has occurred in 12% of comparable July days since 2010.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for Houston, particularly any updates on sea-breeze strength or cloud cover trends that could cap peak temperatures. A recent AccuWeather report notes current humidity at 66% with partly sunny skies, conditions that often precede slightly moderated highs if cloud persistence increases overnight [1]. The key catalyst is whether the Gulf moisture remains trapped or gets advected northward; a shift in the 500mb wind pattern over the next three days could signal a contrarian move into lower temperature ranges before settlement on 15 July 2026.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.