Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

Istanbul's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Atatürk Airport (LTFM) and resolved against NOAA's hourly data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. May in Istanbul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only morning and early-afternoon readings will count toward resolution.

Historical May temperatures at Istanbul Airport show a median high around 26°C, with the 90th percentile reaching approximately 29°C. Extremes above 32°C are rare but not unprecedented for late May, occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the outcome to fall within a narrow, heavily-favoured band rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about the day's weather. This creates potential value in tail outcomes if seasonal patterns shift or an unusual warm system moves through the eastern Mediterranean.

The primary catalyst is the large-scale atmospheric pattern developing across southern Europe in May 2026. Traders should monitor spring weather forecasts from late April onwards, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over the Mediterranean and any northward displacement of warm air masses from North Africa. NOAA's own extended forecasts, typically reliable 10–14 days out, will provide the most actionable signal closer to settlement. The timing of the settlement window—ending at noon—means afternoon heating is excluded, which structurally suppresses the highest possible readings compared to full-day maxima.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.