Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur’s high temperature on 10 August is being priced like a **33°C favourite**, with the market showing **0% YES** on the alternative ranges and implying traders think the day will land squarely in the low-30s rather than break higher. That lines up with the official Malaysian Meteorological Department forecast for Kuala Lumpur on 10/08/2026, which calls for **no rain** and a **maximum of 33°C**, while AccuWeather’s airport page also clusters the day around the upper 80s Fahrenheit, broadly consistent with a low-30s Celsius read[11][19][13].

Historically, Kuala Lumpur’s August highs are usually in the **high-20s to low-30s Celsius**, with published monthly averages around **30°C/87°F** and daily August norms near **31°C/91°F** on some climatology pages[9][1]. Recent comparable readings have also shown plenty of 31–34°C outcomes, including a recent 24-hour spell at Subang with temperatures up to **33.2°C**, so the consensus is not out of step with the city’s warm-season ceiling[15][6]. On that framing, **33°C** looks like the base case, while **34°C** is the more obvious contrarian value if clearing, lighter winds, or late-morning heating push the airport station a touch hotter than forecast.

For traders, the main catalyst is the actual **Daily Observations** table from Weather Underground at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport, since the market settles on that source rather than the summary high/low box. The key watchpoint is whether the station posts a brief spike into the **34°C** band before any afternoon convection arrives; the current forecast mix from official and commercial sources still leaves that outcome live, but not the consensus favourite[4][11][19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.