Highest temperature in London on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from headline highs.

London's August temperatures have historically clustered between 20–28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C at the airport station. The record August high for the capital sits at 36.4°C (2022), though City Airport's readings tend slightly cooler than central London due to its riverside location. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded; comparable weather markets typically see meaningful distribution across plausible ranges once trading begins.

The UK Met Office issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with increasing reliability from early August onwards. Traders should monitor late July and early August weather patterns—particularly Atlantic systems and any high-pressure ridges that might drive continental air masses into the British Isles. Solar activity and sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic influence August weather trajectories. The settlement window closes at midday on the day itself, so morning forecasts and real-time observations will be the final arbiters. Early trading should establish whether consensus clusters around typical August conditions (22–26°C range) or prices in tail-risk scenarios.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.