Highest temperature in London on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the peak temperature recorded at London City Airport on 11 June 2026, measured in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about temperature ranges or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Wunderground's historical data for this station will determine the final reading, with the settlement window closing at midday on the day itself.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–23°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or occasionally above 30°C. The 11th falls within the early summer period when Atlantic weather systems often dominate, bringing variable conditions. Historical June records at City Airport show that temperatures exceeding 25°C occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst readings above 28°C remain relatively uncommon. The zero probability assigned here likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine conviction that all temperature brackets are impossible.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast from the Met Office as June 2026 approaches, particularly tracking any developing high-pressure systems or continental air masses that could drive anomalous warmth. Late-May weather patterns often signal June's trajectory; a sustained warm spell in the preceding weeks would increase odds of elevated temperatures on the 11th. Solar activity and jet-stream positioning in early summer typically determine whether Atlantic lows or Iberian heat domes influence southern England. The current flat market offers potential value once forecasts solidify, as consensus tends to cluster around modal outcomes rather than tail scenarios.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.