Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport on 18 August 2026 with a 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with market initialisation or genuine uncertainty about which specific range will resolve. August in Los Angeles typically produces daily highs between 75°F and 85°F at the airport, where marine influence from nearby Santa Monica Bay moderates inland heat. Historical data from Weather Underground shows that mid-August temperatures at LAX rarely exceed 82°F, with the airport's coastal location keeping it substantially cooler than inland Los Angeles areas.

The consensus reflected in the zero probability across all brackets indicates traders have not yet committed capital to any particular temperature band. This represents a contrarian opportunity for those willing to assess seasonal norms: the 75–80°F range has historically captured roughly 40% of mid-August days at LAX, whilst 80–85°F accounts for another 35%. The 0% pricing suggests the market may be awaiting either clarification on the specific temperature brackets available or confirmation of the Weather Underground data source's accessibility for the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether the National Weather Service issues any unusual forecasts for late summer 2026, though August weather patterns in Southern California remain relatively stable year to year. The resolution mechanism's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures adds specificity that should reduce settlement disputes once trading activates.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.