Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport on 26 May 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical glitch in the odds display or extreme confidence that the settlement will occur outside all listed brackets. May temperatures at LAX typically peak between 72–78°F, with historical records showing the station rarely exceeds 85°F in late May. The current crowd-implied probability of zero across all ranges is an outlier that warrants scrutiny before committing capital.

Historical data from LAX shows May 26 temperatures have ranged from a low of 60°F to a high of 87°F over the past three decades, with the median sitting around 75°F. The station's May record high stands at 97°F, set in 1961, though such extremes are exceptionally rare. The 0% pricing suggests either the market lacks sufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty, or traders are hedging against an outcome falling outside the predefined temperature bands entirely—a scenario that would require either a data source failure or an unprecedented weather event.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts for Southern California in the weeks preceding late May 2026, particularly any alerts for heat domes or unusual atmospheric patterns that could drive temperatures significantly above seasonal norms. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data capture for LAX on that specific date, making data availability and station functionality potential wildcards. Early May weather patterns and any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in early 2026 will provide clearer signals about whether consensus pricing reflects genuine probability or market dysfunction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.