Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow on 17 August 2026, as logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about the range boundaries or minimal trading activity. Lucknow sits in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where August temperatures routinely exceed 35°C; historical data from the airport station shows mid-August highs typically between 33–37°C, with occasional excursions toward 38–40°C during heat waves.

August 2026 falls within the tail end of the Indian summer monsoon season, when atmospheric conditions shift markedly from the preceding dry months. The monsoon's intensity and timing directly influence cloud cover and humidity, which suppress peak temperatures. A weak or delayed monsoon would favour higher readings; an early or vigorous system would suppress them. The Indian Meteorological Department's seasonal forecasts, released in May 2026, will provide the first substantive signal. Recent years (2022–2024) show considerable variability in August maxima at the station, ranging from 32°C to 39°C depending on monsoon progression.

The zero-probability assessment likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine consensus that no outcome will occur. Traders should monitor the IMD's June and July 2026 forecasts for monsoon strength, as well as any emerging heat wave patterns in late July. The specific temperature range boundaries matter considerably; without knowing the exact bins offered, assessing value remains difficult, but historical volatility suggests mid-range outcomes (34–36°C) carry higher base-rate support than extremes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.