Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting consensus expects temperatures to fall below the threshold specified in the unresolved range brackets.

Madrid's August climate is reliably hot, with historical daily maxima typically between 32–35°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability indicates either the YES range sits above Madrid's typical August ceiling—perhaps 38°C or higher—or traders are anchoring to recent years' patterns. August 2023 saw Madrid peak at 37.2°C on the 15th, whilst the summer of 2022 brought more extreme heat across Spain. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency worth noting; discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally affected similar markets.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from late July onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any Saharan dust incursions that could elevate temperatures above seasonal norms. Spain's meteorological service (AEMET) issues monthly forecasts in early August that often refine expectations for heat waves. The current 0% reading may reflect either genuine confidence in moderate August conditions or insufficient liquidity to price tail-risk scenarios. Historical volatility in Madrid's August extremes—ranging from 33°C to 37°C in recent decades—suggests the market's assessment warrants scrutiny if the specified YES range sits only modestly above typical August maxima.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.