Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s airport temperature on 10 August is being priced as a **cooler, wet-season** outcome, with the crowd still giving **0% YES** despite forecast highs generally sitting in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius range. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Manila shows daily highs around **85°F to 90°F** (roughly **29°C to 32°C**), while its 10-day page for 10 August points to **85°F/80°F** with morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms; timeanddate and other live feeds likewise show rain, high humidity and temperatures clustered in the **mid-to-upper 20s Celsius** early in the day.[1][2][3][5][7][8]

For handicapper framing, the favourite is a **29°C to 31°C** print if the day stays clouded and rain-affected; the underdog is a late break into the low-30s if showers clear and solar heating bites. The key historical read is that Manila’s August climate is usually humid and unsettled rather than extreme, with wet-day odds remaining high through the month and average highs near the upper 20s Celsius to around 30°C depending on the source, so the market’s consensus sits around a modest daytime ceiling rather than a heat spike.[9][10][16] That leaves value, if any, in contrarian overs only if the airport station runs hotter than nearby city forecasts suggest.

Traders should watch the timing of the day’s rain bands and thunderstorms, because the resolution source is the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table for Ninoy Aquino International Airport, not the summary high/low display.[11][14] PAGASA’s outlook flags **southwest monsoon** influences and occasional rains across Metro Manila, which matters because even brief convection can cap the station maximum; the practical catalyst is whether the airport gets a dry window late morning to early afternoon before the first datapoint for the following date is published.[12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.