Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will record its peak daily temperature, a metric that defines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome of any temperature above the baseline. Historical data frames this as a wet-season event: July is Manila’s heaviest rainfall month, with average daytime highs of 31°C and very high humidity, while the dry season (November to May) typically sees hotter peaks, with April being the hottest month. Long-term averages show daytime temperatures rarely exceed 33°C in July, and the wet season average sits between 26°C and 31°C, making extreme heat an underdog scenario.

Traders should monitor real-time cloud cover breaks and steering flow shifts, as modest diurnal heating potential could be disrupted by sudden model spread in atmospheric steering. Recent PAGASA data (as of 30 June 2026) shows top regional highs at 34.0°C in Laoag and Catbalogan, but Manila’s July climate remains consistently cooler due to persistent rainfall and cloud cover. The consensus clusters tightly around 31–32°C, with short-range forecasts indicating limited heating potential, while the 33–34°C range reflects contrarian value only if cloud cover breaks unexpectedly. The implied probability of 0% for higher temperatures suggests the market is heavily biased toward the wet-season norm, leaving potential value for those betting on rare diurnal spikes.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.