Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s July 11, 2026 high temperature hinges on whether the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station records a peak that breaches its typical early-summer ceiling. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, signalling near-total consensus that the day will stay within the market’s lower range. Historical data frames this as a heavy favourite for the underdog: Metro Manila’s all-time record is 38.8°C, logged in April 2024, while early July afternoon highs typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, with 32°C to 34°C being most common [1][8]. Even Manila’s hottest day in the 2024 dataset reached only 37.3°C, still below the April record, suggesting July is structurally cooler than the peak dry-season months [9].

Traders should watch PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and the 00:00–06:00 UTC synoptic updates for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or moisture that could suppress the afternoon peak. A key dependency is the absence of a tropical disturbance; the last 15 days show July 3 hit 35.0°C (94.8°F) while July 10 dipped to 21.4°C (70.5°F), indicating high day-to-day volatility [2]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on July 11, the final Wunderground reading for RPLL will be the sole resolver, and any contrarian value would require a rare, unforecast heat spike pushing the station toward 36°C or higher—something not seen in July records to date [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.